Transactions of The Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

Background: Sickle cell anaemia (SCA) is characterised by chronic haemolysis, inflammation, platelet activation, and recurrent vaso-occlusive complications. Mean platelet volume (MPV) is a readily available platelet index, but evidence regarding its relationship with disease severity in paediatric SCA remains limited and inconsistent, particularly in African populations. Objective: To evaluate the relationship between MPV and disease severity among children with SCA in Kwara State, North-Central Nigeria. Methods: This hospital-based cross-sectional study included 51 clinically stable children with confirmed SCA consecutively recruited from the paediatric haematology clinic of Children Emergency Specialist Hospital, Ilorin. Complete blood count, including MPV, was performed using a Rayto RT-7600 automated haematology analyser. Disease severity was assessed using a composite clinical and laboratory scoring system based on a previously described method. Pearson's correlation, Spearman's rank correlation, simple linear regression, and the Kruskal-Wallis test were used as appropriate. Statistical significance was set at p < 0.05. Results: Of 51 participants, 14 (27.5%) had mild, 33 (64.7%) moderate, and 4 (7.8%) severe disease. Mean MPV was 9.34 +/- 0.76 fL (range, 8.0-11.2). Pearson's correlation showed a weak positive, non-significant linear relationship with severity score (r = 0.231, p = 0.103), whereas Spearman's analysis showed a weak positive monotonic association (rho = 0.286, p = 0.042). Regression explained 5.3% of severity-score variation (R2 = 0.053, p = 0.103). MPV did not differ significantly across severity categories (H = 2.163, p = 0.339). MPV correlated inversely with haemoglobin (r = -0.556, p < 0.001) and positively with platelet count (r = 0.307, p = 0.029). Conclusion: MPV showed a weak relationship with disease severity but inconsistent statistical evidence across analyses. The limited explained variance and absence of significant differences between severity categories do not support MPV as a standalone severity marker. Larger longitudinal studies are warranted. Keywords: Sickle cell anaemia; Mean platelet volume; Disease severity; Platelet indices; Paediatric haematology; Cross-sectional study; Nigeria.

Background Onchocerciasis (river blindness), caused by the filarial nematode Onchocerca volvulus and transmitted by Simulium blackflies, remains a public health challenge in sub-Saharan Africa. Following the transition from vector control to large-scale ivermectin distribution, microfilariae (mf) prevalence has declined substantially across Ghana. The World Health Organization targets onchocerciasis elimination, defined as sustained mf prevalence below 1%. This requires identifying areas of persistent or resurgent transmission to guide targeted mapping surveys and interventions. Methods A Bayesian spatiotemporal, multilevel, generalized additive model with a zero-inflated beta-binomial outcome was fitted to mf prevalence data from 1353 surveys across 671 villages and environmental and socio-economic predictors. Temporal prevalence trends for ecozones within operational transmission zones (OTZ) were modelled using a 2D spatial smooth to account for residual spatial autocorrelation. Temporal autocorrelation in prevalence was accounted for using a random effect for village nested within ecozone. Results Runoff probability and surface wetness were positively associated with prevalence, consistent with Simulium breeding in fast-flowing water. Despite high initial mf prevalence, by 2015 the median prevalence across all OTZs in Ghana was estimated to be between 0.43 and 1.97%. The probability that prevalence was <1% in 2015 ranged from 0.15 to 0.87. Assuming testing rates and mass drug administration have remained consistent (twice a year and >80% coverage), linear extrapolation predicted that the three OTZs have some probability of exceeding the elimination threshold by 2030, while two were predicted to have near-zero prevalence. The Tano-Ankobra OTZ, which includes both savanna and forest agro-ecological zones, was a persistent hotspot. Conclusions This first comprehensive spatio-temporal analysis of onchocerciasis in Ghana reflects the well-documented challenge of onchocerciasis control in forested riverine environments. Persistent transmission foci in eastern and southern Ghana, particularly in forest zones with sustained vector habitat, warrant targeted investigation and intensified intervention to meet WHO elimination thresholds.

Background On the Zanzibar islands, Tanzania, mass drug administration (MDA) with praziquantel against Schistosoma haematobium infections has been implemented regularly since the early 2000s. Elimination of schistosomiasis as a public health problem has been achieved in most areas, with the goal of interruption of transmission. The RESIST project investigates the extent to which MDA-driven selection for praziquantel resistance is occurring and contributing to persistent transmission hotspots. Methodology As part of RESIST, the efficacy of praziquantel treatment was assessed in two schools on Pemba between October 2024 and March 2025. Longitudinal parasitological surveys were conducted before and two weeks after school-based MDA with praziquantel (40 mg/kg). Up to six urine samples per study participant were collected on different days pre- and post-MDA and examined for S. haematobium eggs by urine filtration microscopy. In a per-protocol analysis, drug efficacy was categorised as adequate, inconclusive, or reduced, based on hypothesis testing. A generalized linear mixed model was used to assess the association between pre-MDA infection intensity and drug efficacy at the individual level. Principal findings Pre-MDA, S. haematobium prevalence was 14.3% (62/434) in School 1 and 37.8% (233/617) in School 2. Post-MDA prevalence was 0.5% (2/434) and 9.6% (59/617), respectively. Egg reduction rates were 99.8% (90% confidence interval (CI): 99.2-100%) in School 1 and 94.8% (90% CI: 88.6-98.6%) in School 2, which were classified as adequate and inconclusive, respectively. In School 2, drug efficacy at the individual level was negatively associated with pre-MDA infection intensity. Conclusion/significance The efficacy of praziquantel on Pemba remains higher than the 90% threshold for optimal drug efficacy set by the World Health Organization. While the inconclusive efficacy results for School 2 can at least partially be explained by the variation in the participants pre-MDA infection intensities, further investigations are warranted to account for the disparity in praziquantel efficacy on Pemba. Trial registration: ISRCTN, ISRCTN59331501. Registered 24 October 2024, https://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN59331501.

In 2026, a Bundibugyo ebolavirus (BDBV) outbreak emerged in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), with 4,566 confirmed cases and 2,128 deaths reported as of 11 August, potentially becoming the largest Ebola outbreak on record globally. We developed a susceptible-exposed-infectious-deceased-recovered (SEIDR) model incorporating incorporating three categories of interventions, public self-protection, safe burial, and treatment and convalescence, to assess early transmission dynamics, the current epidemic trajectory, and cross-border spillover risk, and to inform the formulation of control strategies. Based on cumulative confirmed case data up to 31 July, sensitivity analyses across multiple candidate start dates identified 28 March as the optimal start date of sustained transmission, with 31 March to 3 April as the most likely onset window. As of 31 July, the basic reproduction number (R0) was 1.83 (95% CI: 1.81-1.84). When 58.12% of the susceptible population adopted protective behaviours, the transmission chain could be effectively interrupted. By integrating the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA-II) with Pontryagin's minimum principle (PMP), we derived a time-varying optimal control strategy, with adjustments every two weeks, that could shorten the epidemic duration by approximately 7 months. Using International Migrant Stock data and Facebook IP-based mobility data with the Prophet forecasting model, we assessed spillover risk. Four countries were identified as very high risk at the end of July. Compared with the status quo scenario, the optimised control strategy could substantially reduce global importation risk. Enhanced entry screening and preparedness are warranted in neighbouring countries of the DRC in Africa, France in Europe, and Canada in North America.

Background: Unexplained spatial heterogeneity in field-observed Human Blood Index (HBI) hinders vector-borne disease control. We synthesized micro-morphological sensory structure densities across primary disease vectors to formulate a novel Proboscis Sensory Index (PSI) from micro-morphological sensory structure densities to evaluate its capacity to predict vector anthropophily, zooprophylactic modulation, and spatial transmission risk across Northern Nigeria. Methods: A systematic review of 42 studies (N = 18,647 blood-fed mosquitoes across 126 georeferenced sites, 2005 to 2025) synthesized baseline species-specific PSI metrics from electron microscopy sensilla counts. A multi-variable binomial Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) evaluated interactions between PSI, livestock, human density, and environmental covariates. Predictive accuracy was validated against field-derived Entomological Inoculation Rates (EIR) and historical outbreak records. Results: The overall pooled HBI was 0.642 (95% CI: 0.588 to 0.694), exhibiting significant variation across the Sudan (0.728), Guinea (0.615), and Sahel (0.584) savannas. Species specific PSI values graded from Anopheles gambiae s.s. (8.91 {+/-} 0.34), Anopheles funestus (8.12 - 0.38), and Anopheles arabiensis (7.68 {+/-} 0.41) to Culex quinquefasciatus (4.87 {+/-} 0.52). In GLMM analysis, PSI was the strongest predictor of anthropophily ({beta} = 0.89, aOR = 2.44, 95% CI: 2.32 to 2.56, p < 0.001), with fixed effects explaining 78% of total field variance (Marginal R2 = 0.78). High PSI species maintained elevated anthropophily regardless of livestock availability, whereas low-PSI species displayed steep zooprophylactic diversion ({Delta}HBI = -0.71, p < 0.001) under high cattle density. Incorporating PSI reduced localized EIR prediction error by 64.2% (RMSE = 15.0 vs. 41.8 infective bites/person/month), and high-resolution (1 km2) predictive mapping correctly identified 87.1% (27/31) of historically documented outbreak Local Government Areas. Conclusion: Micro-sensory organ density dictates vector host preference and livestock-mediated zooprophylactic potential. Integrating PSI into spatial models resolves localized transmission heterogeneity, guiding targeted vector control prioritizing indoor residual spraying and dual-ingredient nets in high PSI foci, while leveraging endectocides and larval management in low-PSI pastoral corridors.

While a causal link between urogenital schistosomiasis (Schistosoma haematobium) and anaemia is well established, quantitative associations between infection intensity and haemoglobin levels across endemic communities, at fine spatial scales, remain insufficiently characterized. As part of the broader Hybridisation in Urogenital Schistosomiasis (HUGS) investigation, we studied the micro-epidemiology of anaemia within two study communities in southern Malawi where S. haematobium remains endemic. Urine samples were examined by microscopy to quantify S. haematobium infection intensity, categorised as low (0-9 eggs/10 mL), moderate (10-49 eggs/10 mL), and heavy ([&ge;]50 eggs/10 mL). Individual haemoglobin concentrations were measured using a HemoCue photometer in 1,149 participants from Samama village (Mangochi District) and 977 participants from Mthawira village (Nsanje District). Linear geostatistical models incorporating individual-level characteristics and spatial covariates were used to estimate anaemia prevalence at fine geographical scales. Moderate anaemia (Hb 80-109 g/L) was most prevalent among children aged 6-12 years (45.30% in Samama and 39.54% in Mthawira), while severe anaemia was more frequent among adults aged [&ge;]19 years in both villages. Increasing S. haematobium infection intensity was associated with lower haemoglobin levels, with individuals harbouring heavy infections being at greater risk of moderate-to-severe anaemia. Spatial modelling revealed longer-range spatial correlation in Nsanje ({phi} = 66.7 km) than in Mangochi ({phi} = 25.5 km), indicating more spatially persistent risk in Nsanje and more localised heterogeneity in Mangochi. Predicted anaemia prevalence among female children aged 6-12 years with moderate infection intensity ranged from 25-65% in Mangochi and 64-76% in Nsanje. At the micro-epidemiological level, S. haematobium infection intensity was associated with the severity of anaemia, with substantial spatial heterogeneity within and between villages. Identification of high-risk clusters supports targeted interventions, including stepped-up preventive chemotherapy, improved water and sanitation, and iron supplementation.

BackgroundMalaria caused by Plasmodium knowlesi and lymphatic filariasis caused by Brugia malayi are mosquito-borne infections with non-human primates as reservoirs. P. knowlesi has emerged as a significant cause of human malaria in Southeast Asia over the past two decades. Belitung district, Indonesia, was until recently assumed to have eliminated B. malayi until infections were detected in humans and long-tailed macaques. To investigate whether the local reservoir of B. malayi is also a reservoir for malaria we screened macaques from 4 areas in Belitung for malaria parasites. Methods and findingsBlood samples from 163 long-tailed macaques (Macaca fascicularis) that had been tested for B. malayi were examined by quantitative PCR assays specific for Plasmodium spp., P. knowlesi, P. inui, P. coatneyi and P. cynomolgi. A total of 130 macaques (79.8%) tested positive in the pan-Plasmodium qPCR assay. Plasmodium inui was most prevalent (41.7%), followed by P. knowlesi (38.7%), P. coatneyi (24.5%) and P. cynomolgi (13.5%). Multiple species infections, with 2-3 Plasmodium species were detected in 37% of macaques. Notably, 20 (91%) of 22 B. malayi-positive macaques were co-infected with at least one Plasmodium species. We sequenced the complete mitochondrion from 9 samples diagnosed by qPCR as mono-infections. Phylogenetic analysis confirmed 7 as P. knowlesi, and the other two as P. inui and P. coatneyi. Phylogenetic and pairwise analysis revealed that P. knowlesi isolates from Belitung were closely related to each other and to P. knowlesi from humans and monkeys from Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. ConclusionsMolecular evidence shows high prevalence of zoonotic malaria parasites in macaques from Belitung, emphasizing the risk of human transmission. Increased surveillance, improved diagnostics, and targeted interventions are needed to prevent zoonotic spillover of P. knowlesi as it has been observed for B. malayi in Belitung. Author summaryWe examined macaques for Plasmodium parasites in Belitung Island, Indonesia, a region classified as free of locally transmitted human malaria. Plasmodium knowlesi is a monkey parasite that commonly infects humans and has emerged as a concern in Southwest Asia over the last 20 years. In Belitung, macaques are infected with Brugia malayi, a filarial nematode, that causes lymphatic filariasis in humans. Blood samples from 163 macaques were screened for Plasmodium DNA and 80% carried malaria parasites. Plasmodium inui was most common, followed by P. knowlesi, P. coatneyi, and P. cynomolgi. Many macaques were infected with multiple parasites simultaneously, but no host was infected with all four Plasmodium species. Ninety one percent of B. malayi-positive macaques were co-infected with malaria parasites, including P. knowlesi, indicating multi-parasite infections that could potentially spread to humans. Analysis of the mitochondrial genome of 7 P. knowlesi isolates from Belitung showed that they were most similar to each other and both human and monkey samples from Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia. The study highlights the need for enhanced malaria monitoring and prevention, given the complex epidemiology of co-infecting parasites and risk to humans and animals.

Introduction: Nigeria continues to report one of the highest burdens of diphtheria globally, with Kano State accounting for a disproportionate share of cases and deaths. Understanding epidemiological patterns and mortality determinants is essential for guiding targeted interventions. Objectives: To describe the distribution of diphtheria cases in Kano State by socio-demographic and clinical characteristics, Local Government Area, and month of reporting, and identify independent predictors of mortality. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 21,369 patients with clinically compatible and laboratory-confirmed diphtheria using secondary data from medical records (2022-2025). Descriptive statistics summarized patient characteristics and disease distribution. Associations with mortality were assessed using chi-square or Fishers exact tests. Multivariable logistic regression identified predictors of mortality, reported as adjusted odds ratios (aORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results: Of 21,369 patients, 13,557 (63%) were female, with a median age of 11 years (IQR: 7-13.6). Children aged 5-9 years accounted for 29% of cases. Prior contact with a case was reported in 2,633 (12%) patients, while 168 (1%) were laboratory-confirmed. Overall, 13,468 (63%) patients were unvaccinated and 5,381 (25%) fully vaccinated; Diphtheria antitoxin DAT was administered to 2,035 (10%). Cases occurred in all local government areas (LGAs), with four accounting for 60% of cases. Transmission occurred year-round, peaking in March 2024 and August 2023 and 2025. Overall, 1,131 deaths occurred (CFR: 5.3%). Compared with patients aged [&ge;]20 years, younger age groups had higher odds of mortality: 0-4 years (aOR = 26.74, 95% CI: 17.64-42.72), 5-9 years (aOR = 19.77, 95% CI: 13.17-31.33), 10-14 years (aOR = 8.21, 95% CI: 5.41-13.13), and 15-19 years (aOR = 2.46, 95% CI: 1.45-4.26). Prior contact with a case was associated with lower odds of mortality (aOR = 0.42, 95% CI: 0.30-0.55), whereas laboratory confirmation (aOR = 2.33, 95% CI: 1.48-3.56) and DAT receipt (aOR = 2.55, 95% CI: 2.19-2.96) were associated with higher odds. Prior vaccination was associated with lower odds of mortality among fully vaccinated (aOR = 0.52, 95% CI: 0.44-0.61) and partially vaccinated patients (aOR = 0.61, 95% CI: 0.47-0.80). Conclusions and recommendations: During the study period, diphtheria was more common among younger children, females, and the unvaccinated. Although concentrated in a few LGAs, transmission was widespread and varied seasonally. Mortality was associated with younger age, laboratory-confirmed infection, and use of diphtheria antitoxin, whereas vaccination and prior contact were protective. Reducing the burden requires sustained efforts to strengthen routine immunization, implement targeted vaccination campaigns, ensure early detection and prompt treatment, and improve contact tracing and case management.

Background: Invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella (iNTS) disease causes high childhood mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. Malaria infection is postulated to increase iNTS risk through impairment of bactericidal immunity. We quantify malaria's causal contribution to iNTS and explore burden mitigation via integrated antimalarial and iNTS prevention strategies. Methods: We analyzed 443 weeks of surveillance data (September 2017-March 2026) from Kisantu health zone, Democratic Republic of Congo. Analyses included interrupted time series of perennial malaria chemoprophylaxis (PMC; November 2023) and R21/Matrix-M vaccine (October 2024) rollouts, causal mediation analysis, calibration of an age-structured co-infection Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SIRS) model via the neural ordinary differential equation (ODE) adjoint method, and a 15,435-scenario grid search for NTS infection elimination coverage thresholds. Findings: Malaria burden was 80% lower at PMC full coverage (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0{middle dot}197, 95% CI: 0{middle dot}096-0{middle dot}401 ; p<0{middle dot}001). A declining iNTS trend emerged post-ramp (IRR 0{middle dot}990/day, 95% CI: 0{middle dot}981-0{middle dot}998 ; p=0{middle dot}018). The calibrated SIRS model estimated ~12-fold iNTS susceptibility during malaria infection ({psi}M[-&gt;]N = 12{middle dot}0, 95% CI: 3{middle dot}6-28{middle dot}3). Combined malaria prevention strategies provided immediate iNTS burden reduction ([&le;] 37%), but full iNTS elimination requires a [&ge;]70% efficacious iNTS vaccine. Interpretation: Malaria control interventions deliver meaningful iNTS co-benefits. This analysis support their prioritization along with further evaluation of integrated malaria-iNTS prevention strategies in high-burden settings. Our results show that full NTS elimination additionally requires a high-efficacy iNTS-specific vaccine. Funding: The Gates Foundation (INV-047715, INV-007844, INV-082265, INV-077454), The European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership (RIA2017S-2027), and the Swedish Styrelsen for internationellt utvecklingssamarbete (17106)

All primary healthcare centers owned by the Ugandan government in the Western Region of Uganda were submitted to a questionnaire concerning current availability of POCT from the Essential diagnostic List 2 part 1a and 1b, and the African laboratory inventory done by African Society of Laboratory Medicine and AfricaCDC. The data from the questionnaire was then linked to open source geodata provided by TomTom, and population data to calculate and visualize the accessibility of captured POCT. Findings: Availability of POCT Malaria is almost 100%, HIV 68-90%, and >30% for a majority of the POCT in the EDL-2 panel. 90% of the population in Western Region live within 1 hour by car from most of the essential POCT. Figures in the complementary web-based application visualize the accessibility of POCT for Western Uganda. Diagnostic deserts are visualized. Interpretation: Access to POCT at primary health care facilities in western Uganda has expanded substantially over the past decades. The geo-mapping tool presented here could inform policy decisions on strengthening diagnostic capacity at the national, regional, and provincial level. Funding: Swedish Research Council and Infravis All supplementary materials and a preprint of this submission are available on our OSF repository https://osf.io/j7puk/.

Background: The biological mechanism linking rainfall with leptospirosis transmission is well established, but rigorous quantitative evidence for the insular Caribbean remains scarce, limited mostly to descriptive reports of post-hurricane outbreaks. We aimed to quantify the association between rainfall and leptospirosis incidence in the Dominican Republic, where leptospirosis is endemic, between 2012 and 2026 using a distributed-lag approach. Methods: We conducted an ecological time-series study complemented by a province panel with fixed effects. Case data (5,412 valid cases) were obtained from the national surveillance system (SIP-0276FA51); rainfall data were obtained from 15 INDOMET rain gauge stations across 13 provinces (2000 to 2026). We calculated the cross-correlation function between lagged monthly rainfall (0 to 6 months) and case counts, fitted a negative binomial distributed-lag regression model (lags 0 to 3 months) adjusted for seasonality and trend, triangulated findings with a 13-province fixed-effects panel, compared four rainfall exposure metrics, assessed extreme-rainfall threshold sensitivity, and estimated the population attributable fraction (PAF) with a parametric bootstrap. Results: The rainfall-case association peaked at a 1-month lag (r = 0.551; 95 % CI 0.437-0.647; p < 0.001) and remained significant through 3 months. In the distributed-lag model, all four lags were independently significant, with the 1-month lag showing the strongest effect (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.156 per additional 50mm; 95 % CI 1.090-1.226; p < 0.001). The province panel yielded an almost identical 1-month lag effect (IRR = 1.147; 95 % CI 1.127-1.167). Rainfall above the historical 90th percentile increased case risk the following month (rate ratio = 1.95), with effect magnitude increasing monotonically with threshold stringency. An estimated 28.2 % (95 % CI 19.0-36.6 %) of cases were attributable to rainfall above the recorded historical minimum. Conclusions: Rainfall is a robust, consistent predictor of leptospirosis incidence in the Dominican Republic, with the strongest association observed at a 1-month lag and a lag pattern broadly consistent with findings from distributed-lag studies in Thailand and the Philippines. These findings, which to our knowledge constitute the first formal quantification of this association for the insular Caribbean, provide an evidence base for rainfall-linked early-warning systems, with the strongest signal at approximately one month and elevated risk extending through three months after rainfall.

The need to meet the World Health Organization 2030 target for elimination of lymphatic Filariasis necessitates various activities such as mass administration of medicines (MAM), pre-transmission assessment surveys (pre-TAS)/ epidemiological monitoring survey (EMS) and transmission assessment survey. However for this study, pre-TAS/EMS was conducted to validate elimination milestones and elucidate the lingering immunological consequences of chronic infection. This study conducted a comprehensive evaluation across twelve Local Government Areas (LGAs) in Osun State, screening,7388 individuals for circulating filarial antigen (CFA) using Abbott Filarial Test Strips (FTS), while simultaneously investigating immune modulation in patients with clinical elephantiasis through detailed haematological profiling. Results indicated that the prevalence of the disease at sentinel and spot check sites have been lowered below threshold levels thereby qualifying for a first transmission assessment survey (TAS1), evidenced by a 0% antigenemia rate across all surveyed LGAs, a figure significantly below the World Health Organization's <2% threshold. . The average percentage of individual participation in MDA/MAM programs was found to be 56.09%, whereby, Ola-Oluwa LGA recorded the highest at 84.70% while the list MDA program participation was found at Ilesha East with 18.97%, highlighting a potential vulnerability in vector control compliance. Furthermore, haematological assessments of chronic cases revealed a distinct state of immune suppression, characterized by significant reductions in total white blood cell and lymphocyte counts, alongside persistent monocytosis and eosinopenia. These findings suggest that while Osun State has successfully transitioned into a post-transmission phase, the lingering physiological impacts on the chronically ill and the moderate rates of preventive practice necessitate sustained surveillance and enhanced public health interventions to ensure permanent disease eradication

Abstract Ethiopia introduced the MenAfriVac vaccine to control epidemics of serogroup A meningococcal disease (MenA) between 2013 and 2015. Since the campaign, no MenA epidemics have been reported. However, lacking a follow-up strategy, two critical questions remained unanswered: (1) is protection against MenA waning to a point where epidemics could re-emerge and (2) are non-A serogroups, known to cause outbreaks elsewhere in the meningitis belt, currently circulating in Ethiopia? To inform future policy, this situational analysis draws on historical records, post-2015 surveillance data, MenAfriVac campaign reports, and the current policy landscape to assess meningococcal epidemiology in Ethiopia. Available national data cannot answer either question. Disease notification relies on sentinel surveillance at three hospitals; none located in the epidemic risk western regions and none with a defined catchment population. Cases are rarely laboratory-confirmed, almost never serogrouped, and the resulting data are not reported in a timely manner. Primary carriage and serosurvey studies remain limited, and their methodological heterogeneity including diverse populations, sampling techniques and laboratory assays restricts their generalisability for population-level policy decisions. In the absence of quality primary data, indirect risk estimation based on campaign coverage and regional waning models indicates that population protection dropped from 85% in 2015 to 24% in 2024 and will fall further to 11% by 2030 without intervention. Despite this, the current E-NITAG prioritisation exercise relies on this sparse evidence base, excludes MenAfriVac from the candidate list, and does not incorporate costing or serogroup-coverage data. Addressing the meningococcal evidence gap requires rebuilding national surveillance into a tiered system. Under this structure, primary facilities manage clinical case detection, regional and zonal hospitals perform confirmatory testing, and representative tertiary hospitals conduct serogrouping and genomic characterization with national laboratory support. Until this longitudinal surveillance yields sufficient data for policy decisions, supplementary carriage and seroepidemiological studies remain necessary to assess circulating serogroups and population immunity.

Wolbachia-based interventions were less effective in achieving introgression in Rio de Janeiro than other settings. Reduced introgression occurred in locations where dengue was historically high, raising concerns of inequity. We examined factors affecting Wolbachia introgression in Rio through trajectory modeling, spatiotemporal Bayesian models, and Ae. aegypti abundance estimation. During the intervention (2017-2020), Wolbachia introgression was 26% (median; IQR,14-44%), with four distinct trajectories. Despite receiving more releases, densely populated areas with low socioeconomic status had lower introgression. In spatiotemporally explicit multivariable regressions, higher Ae. aegypti abundance, temperature, population density and lower socioeconomic status were associated with reduced introgression. Improved characterization of Ae. aegypti abundance and other structural/environmental predictors of introgression could be used to calibrate release doses to ensure equitable benefits from Wolbachia interventions.

BackgroundIvermectin, a widely used endectocide with activity against Anopheles (An) mosquitoes, has emerged as a promising complementary tool for malaria vector control. However, currently approved oral formulations provide only short-lived plasma concentrations at mosquitocidal levels, thereby limiting their operational impact. To overcome this limitation, a long-acting injectable formulation based on ivermectin and BEPO technology (mdc-STM-001) was selected through laboratory screening using mosquito colonies. This formulation demonstrated mosquitocidal efficacy meeting WHO criteria, with a hazard ratio (HR) >4 maintained for at least two months. The present study aims to further characterize the efficacy of ivermectin under robust field conditions and to expand susceptibility assessments to wild Anopheles populations representing different species and vectorial status. Ivermectin was tested in cattle at two doses under field conditions using experimental huts and tent traps. Plasma drug levels were also monitored to characterize the pharmacokinetic profile of ivermectin. MethodsThirty-six calves were involved in the study and allocated to three groups (n = 12 per group). The mdc-STM-1.0 group received a single subcutaneous injection of the long-acting ivermectin formulation mdc-STM-001 at a dose of 1.0 mg/kg; the mdc-STM-1.5 group received the same formulation at 1.5 mg/kg and the third group served as controls. Using a three-arm design, cattle from each treatment group were simultaneously exposed to mosquitoes in experimental huts and tent traps, following a Greco-Latin Square rotation to minimize positional confounding factors. Pharmacokinetic data were collected to assess ivermectin release from the subcutaneous depot. Correlations between plasma ivermectin concentrations and mosquito mortality were explored, and survival analysis including Kaplan-Meier and cox proportional hazards models were performed to assess the effect of treatment on mosquito survival. ResultsThe mdc-STM-001 formulation was well tolerated and produced sustained, dose-dependent plasma ivermectin concentrations, with detectable levels maintained for more than 90 days after a single administration. Both doses induced strong mosquitocidal activity against wild Anopheles, with hazard ratios reaching 8.03 and 16.47 for the 1.0 and 1.5 mg/kg doses, respectively. An. funestus and An. rufipes were the most susceptible species (LC50: 5.1-6.9 ng/mL) exhibiting prolonged LC50 coverage (>75 days), whereas An. coustani was less susceptible (LC50: 12.4-19.2 ng/mL) resulting in a shorter duration of effective coverage (17-41 days). ConclusionsTaken together, our results revealed the potential of the mdc-STM-001 long-acting ivermectin formulation as an effective endectocide against residual malaria transmission by primary and secondary vectors and establish evidence basis to support its progression to early-phase clinical trials in humans.

The persistence of Plasmodium vivax is driven by the hidden reservoirs of infection, presenting a key obstacle to elimination. Antibodies persist after asexual infections are cleared from peripheral blood and therefore can indicate current and recent past infections. Here, we present a machine learning algorithm that classifies recent P. vivax infections using serological markers to identify likely hypnozoite carriers. Using serological measurements from year-long observational cohort studies conducted in three low-transmission settings (including negative controls, N=2,635), we selected optimal subsets of markers by balancing sero-diagnostic performance against assay complexity and scalability. We initially trained a random forest classifier and then subsequently we compared several machine learning classifiers. Tree-based methods consistently performed best, although differences were marginal. An online R Shiny application (PvSeroApp) was developed to automate data processing, quality control, and serostatus classification. This algorithm underpins the P. vivax serological testing and treatment (PvSeroTAT) strategy, enabling targeted anti-hypnozoite therapy and strengthening elimination efforts.

Implementing vector control interventions against infectious diseases is operationally challenging, with delivery and population uptake taking considerable time within a community. Studies have suggested that the slow mass drug administration (MDA) of the endectocide, ivermectin, may have contributed to the lower epidemiological impact against malaria observed in recent cluster-randomised controlled trials, although evidence supporting this hypothesis is lacking. It is unclear whether interventions which have short but highly effective durations of entomological impact are more impactful than tools which kill the same number of mosquitoes but over a longer period. Transmission dynamics mathematical models can be used to explore the trade-offs between product profiles and investigate how different implementation periods could influence disease control. First, we use a simple vector-borne disease compartmental model to explore the epidemiological impact of killing the same number of mosquitoes over 10, 30 or 90 days. We find that for different mosquito-killing periods, the total number of cases averted is similar, although the observable impact may depend on when efficacy is assessed. Secondly, we adapted an existing malaria transmission model and simulated the fast and slow deployment of an effective endectocide MDA campaign in different seasonal settings. In perennial and seasonal settings and for a given coverage, slow MDA deployment averts more clinical cases of malaria than a fast synchronised distribution (completed in a single day, although the difference was modest). The benefits of the intervention depend on how well-timed a deployment is relative to the peak of the transmission season, with the efficacy of an ivermectin-like endectocide MDA being up to approximately 42% lower if started late. The work indicates that the time taken to complete MDA campaigns is unlikely to drive major differences in the effectiveness of short-lived endectocides and showcases how transmission dynamics models can be used to support epidemiological trial interpretation.

The 17th Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, announced on 15 May 2026, was attributed to Bundibugyo ebolavirus (BDBV). Although case isolation is the main control strategy, its effectiveness is compromised when patients escape isolation facilities before recovery. Between 14 May and 17 June 2026, 175 individuals reportedly left isolation facilities without formal discharge across Ituri Province. We assessed how this "isolation leakage" affects community transmission. We refined the SEIHFR framework to distinguish undetected community infections, detected but not-yet-isolated cases, isolated individuals, leakage, funeral-associated transmission, and removals. Using Bayesian inference, we fitted the model to daily Ituri surveillance data, escapee counts, and isolation census records. We estimated the leakage rate, reporting and detection probabilities, and the transmission rate, while fixing other parameters based on the BDBV literature. The model reproduced confirmed cases, deaths, discharges, and escapees. We estimated R_0=3.67 (95% HDI: 2.0-5.7), a leakage rate of {rho} {approx} 0.034 day^-1 (0.022-0.051), and high contact-tracing-driven detection (p_d {approx} 0.91-0.99). Leakage increased the detection-dependent reproduction number [R](p_d) from approximately 3.2 to above 5. Eliminating leakage reduced cumulative infections by about one-third, from 1,120 to 764, while the minimum detection level required for control increased from p_d [&ge;] 0.73 without leakage to p_d [&ge;] 0.87 at the fitted leakage rate. Shortening time to isolation prevented the most infections (73.4%; 59-84), followed by reducing leakage (29.7%; 14-52) and re-isolating escapees (12.6%; 6-24). Delaying leakage reduction until week 4 reduced its benefit from about 27% to below 2%. Isolation leakage represents a major transmission pathway that has until now gone largely unmeasured. While rapid initiation of isolation is highly beneficial, it cannot compensate for permeable isolation; therefore, early, community-driven efforts to control leakage, embedded within a multilayered response, are critical.

Background: Angola is one of the most affected countries in sub-Saharan Africa and was off-track to meet the WHO Global Technical Strategy targeting of a 75% reduction in malaria incidence and mortality by 2025. Recent studies highlighted major knowledge gaps regarding malaria vectors in Angola, particularly secondary vectors. A malaria control project initiated in 2007 in Balombo (Benguela Province, central Angola) has monitored malaria dynamics for 18 years, revealing increased Plasmodium prevalence and more frequent detection of non-falciparum species, mainly Plasmodium malariae (in co-infection with P. falciparum) in villagers of the Balombo region. This study aimed to characterize Anopheles populations in this region by assessing species composition, behavioural patterns, and infection rate. And to a less extent, to compare the performance of two indoor and outdoor mosquito trapping methods. Methods: Surveys were conducted during the rainy (December 2023 and 2024) and dry seasons (July 2024) in villages around the town of Balombo. Adult mosquitoes were collected indoors and outdoors using CDC Light Traps and BG-Pro traps in randomly selected houses. Female Anopheles were morphologically and molecularly identified. Primary and secondary vectors were screened for Plasmodium spp. using qPCR-high resolution melting, and positive samples were sequenced. Results: A strong seasonal effect was observed in Anopheles populations, with higher abundance, diversity, and Plasmodium- infection rates during the rainy season. An. funestus remained the main vector, but Plasmodium spp. was also detected in five other species: An. arabiensis, An. gambiae, An. marshallii, An. rufipes, and An. maculipalpis. This is the first report of P. malariae in Anopheles mosquitoes and the first mention of the role of secondary vectors in malaria transmission in Benguela Province. Conclusion: This study provides a thorough and updated inventory of Anopheles species in the Balombo region. Molecular biology confirmed the presence of P. falciparum and P. malariae in several species of Anopheles underscoring the existence of a complex transmission system in villages of Balombo. Infected exophagic and exophilic Anopheles species, exhibiting opportunistic behaviour, likely contribute, as secondary vectors, to the increase of Plasmodiumspp. transmission in the study sites. Therefore, confirming the need to implement complementary interventions targeting outdoor malaria transmission.

Background: Snakebite envenoming is a major cause of preventable death and disability in the Brazilian Amazon, where long distances, sparse roads, and dependence on river transport delay access to antivenom. We developed location-allocation models to identify community health centers that could strategically expand access to antivenom in Amazonas State, Brazil. Methodology/Principal Findings: We conducted an ecological geospatial study using a 2025 WorldPop population surface, locations of existing and candidate health facilities, and a multimodal road-and-river transportation network derived from OpenStreetMap and HydroSHEDS. Population demand was represented by 7,065 populated centroids, including 1,586 within Indigenous territories. We applied a maximize-coverage algorithm with a six-hour travel-time threshold. Two models were developed: one for Amazonas excluding Manaus and one for populations living in Indigenous territories. Both models began with 77 facilities already providing antivenom and progressively added candidate community health centers until coverage gains plateaued. The plateau occurred at 110 facilities, corresponding to 33 additional centers. In the model excluding Manaus, this configuration covered 1,118,831 people, or 75.11% of the target population; 87.61% of those covered could reach care within three hours. In Indigenous territories, coverage increased from 50.55% to 69.50%, reaching 50,434 people, of whom 81.39% were within three hours of care. Validation used 3,595 snakebite notifications from the 30 highest-burden municipalities in the Brazilian Notifiable Diseases Information System during 2023-2025. The median proportion reaching care within six hours was 40.81% in observed data and 72.17% in model estimates. Conclusions/Significance: Strategically equipping 33 additional existing community health centers could substantially expand timely access to antivenom, particularly in rural and Indigenous areas. Location-allocation modeling that incorporates river transportation can support evidence-based decentralization of time-sensitive health services in geographically complex settings.